Article

17 Sep 2026

Market Pulse: CIO Insights | August 2026

Blackwattle Investment Partners Market Pulse from CIO Michael Skinner.


Market Insights

Australian equity markets rose again in August, with the S&P/ASX 200 returning +1.5% to bring year-to-date returns to +6.3%, a fifth consecutive month of gains.

The headline masked one of the sharpest months of dispersion in recent memory: the S&P/ASX 20 fell -0.63% while the MidCap 50 rose 5.5% and the Small Ordinaries returned +5.2%, as reporting season drove volatility.

The spread between the best and worst performing sectors exceeded 20%, an environment that, in our view, rewards disciplined bottom-up stock selection.

Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its 11 August meeting, its second consecutive hold, with Governor Bullock emphasising that inflation remains too high and that the Board now expects inflation to remain above the midpoint of the target band until mid-2027.

The July monthly CPI, released late in the month, showed headline inflation easing to +3.5% year-on-year from +3.8%, but this was hotter than the +3.3% expected, and the trimmed mean was unchanged at +3.6%.

Household spending grew +7.7% year-on-year, ahead of expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%. Market pricing for further RBA hikes shifted from 0.5 to 1.1 hikes for 2026 over the month. The housing market continued to soften: national house prices fell a further -0.9% in August, and CBA noted that mortgage application volumes have fallen 15% since the Federal Budget, with investor mortgage applications down 28%.

Reporting season showed what a difference a year makes.

  • Health Care was the strongest sector, returning +18.8% in August; a year ago it was by far the weakest, returning minus 13.2%, and even after last month’s rally the sector remains -18.0% over 12 months.
  • Lowered expectations and compressed valuation multiples combined to produce outsized responses to results that were, if not better than expectations, at least ‘better than feared’. CSL (CSL) rose approximately +40% after its FY26 result reset earnings expectations.
  • Consumer Discretionary saw the reverse dynamic, returning -7.9% as the weakest sector, with management teams citing a ‘battered consumer’ and JB Hi-Fi (JBH) delivering a sharp negative surprise on soft fourth quarter sales and weak early FY27 trading, dragging Wesfarmers (WES), Harvey Norman (HVN) and Super Retail Group (SUL) lower.
  • Financials returned -5.4%, driven by the major banks: CBA -7.8%, NAB -6.5% and Westpac -8.8%, with ANZ the outlier at -0.3%, its much lower valuation multiple proving more defensible.
  • Beneath the surface, size and factor leadership reversed sharply from July.
  • Small Resources gained +17.5% in a broad-based rally, with gold stocks the clear standout, while Small Industrials were broadly unchanged at +0.2%.
  • Momentum and Quality rebounded to lead factor returns, while Size and Beta lagged. In large caps, Growth was the strongest returning style.
  • Commodity markets were dominated by gold, which rose +9.7% as the US dollar weakened, long-term bond yields rose on debasement and fiscal sustainability concerns, and central bank purchasing continued.
  • Oil markets turned volatile again, with tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz reversing the June ceasefire optimism and returning Brent crude to around US$87 per barrel by month end, undermining the disinflation narrative.
  • Copper prices continued to grind higher on data centre and electrification demand.

Globally, the S&P 500 gained +2.7% in August, its first monthly gain since May, led by a rebound in technology stocks after Nvidia reported 106% revenue growth.

The more consequential move, in our view, was in bond markets. US 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.33%, the highest since 2007, German 10-year Bund yields reached levels not seen since 2011, and Japan’s 10-year yield approached 3.0%. The US Treasury Secretary’s announcement of expanded long-bond purchases initially sparked a small rally in bonds that dissipated as inflation concerns grew, and new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his inaugural Jackson Hole speech to jawbone markets on higher rates, with inflation still running well above the 2% target.

The re-emergence of military strikes between the US and Iran late in the month added a further geopolitical premium.

The dispersion between winners and losers, across sectors, size cohorts and individual stocks, continues to widen. In our view, this reinforces the importance of disciplined active management and owning companies that can compound value irrespective of economic noise.

Outlook

As always, we premise our views with: We do not attempt to forecast markets, as we do not believe this possible. However,
we do apply stringent risk and macroeconomic overlays to our investments. We train ourselves to think long term and not be
distracted by short-term thinking or market fluctuations.

We believe that investors should focus on high-quality companies with resilient business models, strong balance sheets, and a
proven ability to navigate complex environments.

Domestically, the path of interest rates has become the central question for the year ahead. Stronger-than-expected household
spending and a hotter July CPI have renewed the risk of further RBA hikes; while the economy is being impacted by the Federal
Budget tax changes, falling house prices and sharply higher fuel costs.

Higher borrowing costs are already showing up in company results, offsetting gains in operating profit.

In our opinion, equity valuations have become a little more stretched even before considering these pressures, and recent share
price reactions in stocks such as CBA, alongside takeover interest in stocks such as Perpetual and Reliance Worldwide, are
reminders that valuations do matter, even if the market appears to disregard them for stretches of time.

The structural themes we are focused on for the period ahead:

  1. The trajectory of domestic and global interest rates, with long-term bond yields at multi-year or multi-decade highs
    and further RBA hikes now priced in.
  2. The Australian consumer and housing sector, as the lagged impact of rate rises and Federal Budget tax changes
    flows through mortgage applications, house prices and retail spending.
  3. Energy and geopolitics, with the ongoing Iran conflict pushing oil prices above US$100 per barrel feeding both
    inflation and bond yields.
  4. Gold and real assets, as fiscal sustainability and currency debasement concerns support safe-haven demand and
    central bank purchasing.
  5. Widening earnings dispersion, where constrained corporate outlooks are weighing on FY27+ expectations and
    separating genuinely durable business models from the rest.

Our response to this environment is unchanged: we look for companies with strong balance sheets, enduring competitive
advantages, aligned management teams, and attractive valuation entry points. We believe these characteristics matter most
precisely when macro uncertainty is elevated.

Globally, resilient US earnings sit alongside heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty and the most attractive bond yields
in over a decade competing for capital. Key risks to markets, in our view, include a further leg higher in global bond yields, an
escalation of the Middle East conflict and its impact on oil prices, and a sharper-than-expected deterioration in the Australian
consumer. We expect volatility to remain elevated, and we view this as an opportunity for patient, valuation-disciplined investors.

Commentary on Blackwattle’s Funds

We will make mistakes and missteps. But rather than hide from our mistakes, as an investment team we strive to learn from them. This is one of our unwavering commitments.

This month, five of our Funds outperformed their respective benchmarks.

Small Cap Quality Fund click here

Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund click here

Mid Cap Quality Fund click here

Large Cap Quality Fund click here

Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund click here

Equity Income Fund click here

1: The Blackwattle Mid Cap Quality Fund, Large Cap Quality Fund, and Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund’s inception dates are 8 August 2023. The Blackwattle Small Cap Quality Fund’s inception date is 12 September 2023. The Blackwattle Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund’s inception date is 21 November 2023. Blackwattle Equity Income Fund inception date is 12 February 2026. 2. Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund Returns are normalised for the removal of unallotted applications, following the transition of Investment Manager of the Fund. There was a six-month transition period beginning 21 November 2023 and ending 21 May 2024, following the transition of Investment Manager of the Fund. During this transition period, the Fund Benchmark was 50% cash rate as determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia and 50% S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index 3. Benchmark: Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund and Large Cap Quality Fund is S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Mid Cap Quality Fund is S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index-S&P/ASX20 Accumulation Index, Small Cap and Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund is Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index, Equity Income Fund is S&P/ASX 100 Total Return Index: 75% / RBA Cash Rate: 25%. All returns are calculated after fees have been deducted and assume distributions have been reinvested. No allowance is made for tax when calculating these figures. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Source: Apex.

Blackwattle Large Cap Quality Fund

The fund returned +1.44%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.11% net of fees.

Key Contributors: the Financials sector was the largest contributor to alpha, driven by an underweight position in the major banks, particularly Commonwealth Bank (CBA), which ended the month down -7.8% after dividends. CBA’s FY26 result was sound, with revenue growth of 6.2% and profit growth of 7.1%, but when trading on the highest major bank P/E ratio in the world, valuation has become a key focus.

Asta Energy (1AST.DE) rose 14.6% on strong operational performance and an earnings upgrade for calendar 2026, with 1H26 net sales up +22.2% and normalised EBITDA up +54.2% as the company books out production capacity on data centre and electric vehicle demand. Reliance Worldwide (RWC) also contributed after receiving a takeover proposal from Brookfield Asset Management at $4.75, a 32% premium to the prior share price.

Key Detractors: the underweight in CSL (CSL) was the largest detractor. The Fund held a long position earlier this year but exited as the rising share price reached our valuation targets; the stock then re-rated to about 20x P/E on a ‘better-than-feared’ FY26 result, arguably fully priced given a still low growth outlook and peer Grifols trading at around 12x. Life360 (360), in which the Fund holds a long position, also detracted as the market sold the stock down on minor details despite a 2Q result showing 16% growth in Monthly Active Users, 27% growth in Global Paying Circles and 315% growth in Advertising. These reasons are, in our view, nitpicking in an otherwise sound set of results.

Blackwattle Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund

The fund returned +1.50%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.04% net of fees.

Key Contributors: as with the Large Cap strategy, the underweight in the major banks, particularly Commonwealth Bank (CBA), was the largest contributor to alpha, followed by Asta Energy (1AST.DE), up 14.6% on an earnings upgrade, and Reliance Worldwide (RWC), which received a takeover proposal from Brookfield Asset Management at a 32% premium. The short book made a marginally positive contribution, with alpha generated from names in the IT and Industrials sectors.

Key Detractors: the underweight in CSL (CSL) was the largest detractor as the stock re-rated on a ‘better-than-feared’ FY26 result, and the long position in Life360 (360) detracted as the market focused on slightly lower 3Q EBITDA margin guidance rather than the strength of the underlying result.

Blackwattle Mid Cap Quality Fund

The fund returned +8.27%, outperforming the benchmark by 2.85% net of fees.

Key Contributors: Newmont Corporation (NEM) rallied 31% on stronger gold prices and the resolution of its North American JV dispute with Barrick, under which the Fourmile gold discovery, one of the most exciting in recent times, was vended into the JV for less than US$2b, well below valuation estimates of almost US$20b at spot gold prices. We view NEM as the highest quality gold miner globally and continue to see material upside as an ‘enduring high-quality’ business.

Key Detractors: Life360 (360) fell 21% as the market fretted about more constrained 3Q margin guidance on re-investment, despite a strong 2Q result and maintained full year guidance. We continue to see material upside for 360 as an ‘Improving Quality’ business, with its freemium model underpinning low-cost user acquisition, powerful network effects and significant monetisation optionality.

Pleasingly, the majority of portfolio companies delivered strong FY26 results, with non-Resources holdings such as Car Group (CAR), Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) and Light & Wonder (LNW) delivering robust results and positive outlooks. The portfolio remains balanced between three cohorts of quality: growth, cyclical and defensive businesses.

Blackwattle Small Cap Quality Fund

The fund returned +7.46%, outperforming the benchmark by 2.28% net of fees.

Key Contributors: Rox Resources (RXL) rose +53.3% as a site visit and positive operational update at the Diggers and Dealers conference confirmed the Youanmi gold project remains on schedule for first gold by mid-2027, adding to momentum from a rising gold price. Bapcor (BAP) rose +54.6% as its FY26 result demonstrated improving sales momentum, market share gains and stabilising earnings under new management. We established our position following a near 80% decline in the company’s market cap, on the basis that Bapcor retained valuable competitive advantages and the key missing ingredient was backable management with a clear strategy. These are now in place.

Key Detractors: Aussie Broadband (ABB) fell -9.4% despite a solid FY26 result with EPS growth of 26% and a $115m buyback, as the market focused on softness in gross margins rather than the operating leverage being generated through scale. The stock now trades at its cheapest valuation since listing, at just 13x P/E despite an above-peer growth profile, and we expect EPS growth of more than 25% over the next two years.

Performance was supported by diversification, with Resources the standout: the fund benefited from exposure to gold and future-facing materials including lithium, copper and uranium.

Blackwattle Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund

The fund returned +9.62%, outperforming the benchmark by 4.44% net of fees.

Key Contributors: as with the Small Cap Quality Fund, Rox Resources (RXL), up +53.3% on continued progress at the Youanmi gold project, and Bapcor (BAP), up +54.6% as its turnaround gains traction under new management, were the key contributors.

Key Detractors: Aussie Broadband (ABB) fell -9.4% despite a solid FY26 result, as the market focused on gross margin softness rather than the company’s significant operating leverage. We remain attracted to the valuation at just 13x P/E.

Reporting season provided a valuable opportunity to meet with management teams across the portfolio and companies we are considering for future investment. Volatility was again evident throughout the season, and we were pleased with both the actions taken and the way the portfolio was positioned to manage it.

Blackwattle Equity Income Fund

The fund returned +0.85%, underperforming its reference index by 0.16% net of fees, representing a 70% capture of the S&P/ASX 100 Total Return Index return of +1.22%. This outcome is consistent with the lower volatility objective of the strategy, which is expected to lag in rising markets and provide a cushion in falling markets.

Key Contributors: Ramsay Health Care (RHC) benefitted from a strong FY26 result that delivered an EBIT beat driven by the UK and Sante operations, with constructive commentary on FY27 margin expansion. Holdings in Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Capricorn Metals (CMM) contributed as gold prices rallied strongly, Xero (XRO) extended its share price momentum, and significant underweight positions in Wesfarmers (WES) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) both added to relative performance.

Key Detractors: the underweight in CSL (CSL) was the largest single detractor, with the stock rising approximately +40% following its FY26 result; the stabilisation of the core immunoglobulin business and closure of the troubled Vifor acquisition provided the catalyst to increase the holding at a valuation multiple that remains historically low. Goodman Group (GMG) was weak despite a strong operational beat, and the contribution from options was negative as sold call options limited participation in sharp gains across held names. The offset is that the option premium earned provides a valuable cushion in periods where the market weakens.

A new position in Life360 (360) was established during August, and the Fund ended the month invested in 33 stocks with 54 option positions covering 50% of portfolio value. Implied volatilities remain elevated, permitting the Fund to generate an attractive level of income.

Gratitude and Commitment

To our clients and partners – Thank you.  

It is a privilege to represent your capital and hold your trust. We remain committed to investing alongside you, ensuring our interests are always aligned with your own.  We re-iterate the commitments to our investors: 

  • We will always commit our own capital alongside your own.  
  • We will never allow personal trading. 
  • We will always constrain the capacity of our Funds. 
  • We will learn and improve from our mistakes. 
  • We will act with transparency. 

Kind regards,

Michael Skinner CIO and Managing Director, and the entire Blackwattle Team 

To download the full version, please click the link below:

Article

15 Sep 2026

Data and AI: Is the Data Arms Race Over?

Blackwattle CIO Michael Skinner examines why the industry’s data spending arms race has hit diminishing returns, and why AI is set to commoditise data further still. He argues the real edge now lies in judgement, organisational speed and trust, not data spend.


In the data arms race of investing, judgement has never been so important.

In 1980, Sanford Grossman and Joseph Stiglitz published a paper with an inconvenient conclusion for anyone selling market data: information earns a return only while it is scarce.

If share prices reflected all possible information and the efficient market hypothesis was true, nobody would be paid to do research, and alpha generation would be improbable, if not impossible. The market needs inefficiency to fund the people who make it efficient.

Almost half a century later, the funds management industry is determined to test the theorem again. Global spending on market data and analysis has set a record nearly every year for more than a decade. Over roughly the same period, the performance scorecard is somewhat underwhelming: return outcomes are dispersed, and many active funds underperform their benchmark over ten years.

…To read more please click the link below:

Article

17 Aug 2026

Market Pulse: CIO Insights | July 2026


Market Insights

Australian equity markets rose in July, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returning +2.3% for the month, +4.7% year to date.

The month was dominated by an AI-related sell-off in global markets, notably due to the size of the fall, South Korea was down -23.7%. The ASX outperformed most developed markets given its limited AI exposure and regional stability, and the S&P 500 finished roughly flat at -0.1%.

Domestically, the June quarter inflation data came in slightly softer than expected, with the trimmed mean printing at 0.8% for the quarter and 3.6% year on year, below the RBA’s own forecast of 3.8%. The downside surprise saw market pricing for an August rate hike collapse. This followed with the RBA leaving the official cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August.

The labour market remained tight, with unemployment steady at 4.4%, while national housing prices softened further with an average decline of -0.4%. In her address on 11 August, Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks were widely categorised as a “hawkish pause”, reiterating the Bank’s preparedness to raise the cash rate further if required.

  • Energy was the standout sector, returning +12.2% for July as Middle East tensions continued to flare and both refiners Ampol (ALD) and Viva Energy (VEA) pointed to strong earnings, driven by continued refining margin improvement. The Energy sector is now up over +20% for the year, with earnings expectations up almost 50%, although the sector has derated on a PE basis, implying the market believes the conflict will be resolved and is not ascribing value to the shorter-term oil price spike.
  • Financials were also strong, up +5.8%, driven by the banking sector in spite of the headwinds the banks face from softer home loan growth, lower house prices and potential bad and doubtful debts.
  • Information Technology (-4.8%) and Industrials (-1.4%) were a drag on the market as the AI sell-off, combined with concern that the Fed could raise rates later in 2026, weighed on technology names, although Wisetech (WTC) bounced +10% in spite of continued governance concerns.

Performance was heavily skewed by size.

Large caps surged, with the ASX 20 up +3.7%, while the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index fell -3.2%, a spread of close to 7% as the market favoured defensiveness and liquidity ahead of reporting season.

There was also significant factor divergence as the market followed US leads and rotation towards defencives: Value and Beta were the standout factors in July, followed by Size, while Quality lagged slightly and Growth was the worst performing factor.

In commodity markets, Brent crude rose more than +24% as oil rebounded to around US$90 per barrel. Gold equities rose around +1% on safe-haven demand. The lithium complex was hit hard, with Liontown Resources (LTR) down -35.2% and PLS Group (PLS) down -17% as lithium prices continued to reverse recent gains. Iron ore also fell on concerns around a prolonged China property downturn and increasing global supply, including the ramp up of the Simandou operations in Guinea.

Globally, concerns around the pace and economics of investment in artificial intelligence were heightened by several developments, including Meta’s decision to offer excess computing capacity externally, the release of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model, and widening US hyperscaler bond spreads.

In my view, the sharp dispersion between sectors, sizes and factors in July reinforces the importance of disciplined active management, and rotation of this magnitude creates opportunity for bottom-up investors focused on high-quality companies that can compound value irrespective of economic noise.

Outlook

As always, we premise our views with: We do not attempt to forecast markets, as we do not believe this possible. However, we do apply stringent risk and macroeconomic overlays to our investments. We train ourselves to think long term and not be distracted by short-term thinking or market fluctuations.

We believe that investors should focus on high-quality companies with resilient business models, strong balance sheets, and a proven ability to navigate complex environments. Domestically, we believe the softer June quarter inflation print gives the RBA room to extend its pause.

Although the debate over the cycle direction is likely not yet over: sticky services and housing inflation, a labour market that has held unemployment below 4.5% for 55 consecutive months, easing financial conditions and an emerging data centre investment boom all point to the possibility of one further hike.

Uncertainty also remains elevated while a resolution to the Middle East conflict and the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz remain unclear.

We believe that this uncertainty also creates investment opportunity, particularly in high-quality companies, as they benefit from stronger balance sheets, better moats and more resilient earnings.

The key themes we are focused on for the period ahead:

  • August reporting season: corporate earnings will be viewed through the lens of margin durability rather than headline revenue growth. With household budgets strained, we expect the market to focus on softening sales volumes and evidence of discounting in Consumer Discretionary and housing-exposed segments. FY27 earnings forecasts have already been trimmed through July.
  • The trajectory of domestic inflation and the RBA cash rate, including the full impact of higher oil prices as they flow through the system.

– Energy supply risk: the market is not ascribing value to the oil price spike, yet arguably a risk premium should apply given medium-term supply risk as the Middle East rebuilds infrastructure and the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz is assessed.

  • AI capital expenditure scrutiny: questions around the funding and returns of large-scale technology infrastructure investment are driving sharp rotation, creating valuation opportunities in oversold quality names.
  • The size divergence: the rotation away from small companies and Resources has left valuations compelling in a number of areas that are out of favour, with a more supportive rate environment a potential catalyst for these discounts to close.

Our investment philosophy is unchanged. We seek businesses with strong balance sheets, enduring competitive advantages, aligned management teams and attractive valuations: companies that can compound value irrespective of economic noise.

With reporting season ahead volatility is likely to increase, particularly given the sharp divergence in share price performance across sectors and individual stocks in recent months.

If recent reporting seasons are any guide, relatively small changes to earnings expectations can result in significant share price movements.

Commentary on Blackwattle’s Funds

We will make mistakes and missteps. But rather than hide from our mistakes, as an investment team we strive to learn from them. This is one of our unwavering commitments.

This month, five of our Funds outperformed their respective benchmarks.

Equity Income Fund click here

Small Cap Quality Fund click here

Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund click here

Mid Cap Quality Fund click here

Large Cap Quality Fund click here

Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund click here

1: The Blackwattle Mid Cap Quality Fund, Large Cap Quality Fund, and Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund’s inception dates are 8 August 2023. The Blackwattle Small Cap Quality Fund’s inception date is 12 September 2023. The Blackwattle Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund’s inception date is 21 November 2023. Blackwattle Equity Income Fund inception date is 12 February 2026. 2. Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund Returns are normalised for the removal of unallotted applications, following the transition of Investment Manager of the Fund. There was a six-month transition period beginning 21 November 2023 and ending 21 May 2024, following the transition of Investment Manager of the Fund. During this transition period, the Fund Benchmark was 50% cash rate as determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia and 50% S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index 3. Benchmark: Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund and Large Cap Quality Fund is S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Mid Cap Quality Fund is S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index-S&P/ASX20 Accumulation Index, Small Cap and Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund is Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index, Equity Income Fund is S&P/ASX 100 Total Return Index: 75% / RBA Cash Rate: 25%. All returns are calculated after fees have been deducted and assume distributions have been reinvested. No allowance is made for tax when calculating these figures. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Source: Apex.

Blackwattle Large Cap Quality Fund

The fund returned +2.24%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.02% net of fees.

Key Contributors: Perpetual (PPT) received an unsolicited, non-binding, conditional bid from EQT AB at A$21.64 cash per share on 1 July, subsequently revised higher twice to A$22.50. AMP (AMP) performed strongly after upgrading first half 2026 Net Profit After Tax expectations to between A$170m and A$180m, driven in particular by a stronger contribution from its China partnerships. Ampol (ALD) also contributed, as Middle East tension kept refining margins elevated and ALD guided to a Lytton Refiner Margin averaging US$28.26 per barrel for the first half of 2026, well above the US$7.44 delivered in 1H2025.

Key Detractors: The fund’s underweight in CBA (CBA) detracted given the performance of the banks over the month, however we remain comfortable to be underweight given valuations and the risks the sector faces from lower home loan growth, a weaker consumer and potential margin compression.

Blackwattle Long-Short 130/30 Quality Fund

The fund returned +3.08%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.82% net of fees.

Key Contributors: Perpetual (PPT) and AMP (AMP) in the Financials sector, together with Ampol (ALD), were the key long-book contributors, for the reasons outlined above. The short book contributed significantly to returns in July as the fund was short a number of lower quality, speculative names. Given the volatility around the Middle East conflict, the fund held a number of pair trades to manage risks.

Key Detractors: The fund’s underweight in CBA (CBA) detracted from performance, as outlined above.

Blackwattle Mid Cap Quality Fund

The fund returned -1.07%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.65% net of fees.

Key Contributors: Guzman y Gomez (GYG) rallied +18% in July on earnings upgrades from the withdrawal of the US business and supportive analyst research into reporting season, forcing short covering in a highly shorted stock. GYG is leading the modernisation of quick service restaurants in Australia, with franchisee returns that are market leading and a roll-out of 30+ new stores per annum. While we view GYG as an ‘Early Quality’ business, we see significant upside if the business model is executed at scale.

Key Detractors: PLS Group (PLS) fell -17% in July, following a -22% drop in June, as lithium prices continued to reverse recent gains. We see this price volatility as normal for a still nascent commodity. A site visit in June reinforced Pilgangoora as one of the largest and highest-quality hard-rock lithium deposits in the world, and we continue to view PLS as an ‘Improving Quality’ business and one of the most compelling lithium equities globally.

Blackwattle Small Cap Quality Fund

The fund returned -5.05%, underperforming the benchmark by 1.89% net of fees.

Key Contributors: Vysarn (VYS) rose +12.3% following its preliminary FY26 result, which demonstrated revenue and earnings growth both greater than 30%, along with a solid FY27 outlook. Vysarn also announced the ~37% EPS accretive acquisition of Welltech, adding water infrastructure construction and field services capability across the platform.

Key Detractors: Megaport (MP1) fell -16.1%, consolidating after a period of rapid appreciation driven by new AI infrastructure contracts and the establishment of an on-demand GPU pool. AI adoption continues to accelerate globally, expanding the addressable market for Megaport’s platform. Zip Co (ZIP) fell -21.3%, taking a breather following a +109% gain in the June quarter, with no significant company-specific news driving the move. We continue to view Zip as well positioned for medium-term growth given the early stage of BNPL penetration in the US.

Blackwattle Small Cap Long-Short Quality Fund

The fund returned -6.60%, underperforming the benchmark by 3.44% net of fees, following a period of strong outperformance.

Key Contributors: Vysarn (VYS), up +12.3% on its preliminary FY26 result and the accretive Welltech acquisition, as outlined above.

Key Detractors: Megaport (MP1), down -16.1%, and Zip Co (ZIP), down -21.3%, detracted as risk-off sentiment drove a sharp rotation away from smaller companies and technology names. We retain conviction in both businesses over the medium term.

Blackwattle Equity Income Fund

The fund returned +1.74%, underperforming the reference index by 0.42% net of fees. This represented a 63% capture of the S&P/ASX 100 Total Return Index, slightly below our target capture of 75%; a performance lag in a strongly rising market is expected for a covered call income strategy, and the option premium earned provides a valuable cushion in periods where the market weakens.

Key Contributors: BlueScope Steel (BSL) benefitted from continued strength in the US steel market and expectations for further earnings momentum. Amcor (AMC) rose +3.1% as global FMCG volumes showed resilience and the Berry Global integration gains continued to flow through. The fund’s nil position in Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), which fell -22% on production misses and a significant cost overrun, also contributed.

Key Detractors: Goodman Group (GMG) fell -4.4% as investors expressed growing wariness around the capital intensity of the AI data centre transition; notwithstanding these shorter-term concerns, we continue to like GMG’s structural position, including its secured 6.0 gigawatt global power bank. The fund’s underweight to the big four domestic banks also detracted as the sector rallied strongly; our preference in Financials remains the insurers, with a new position in Suncorp Group (SUN) established during July alongside QBE (QBE) and IAG (IAG). The fund also exited Qantas Airways (QAN) and Virgin Australia (VGN).

Gratitude and Commitment

To our clients and partners – Thank you.  

It is a privilege to represent your capital and hold your trust. We remain committed to investing alongside you, ensuring our interests are always aligned with your own.  We re-iterate the commitments to our investors: 

  • We will always commit our own capital alongside your own.  
  • We will never allow personal trading. 
  • We will always constrain the capacity of our Funds. 
  • We will learn and improve from our mistakes. 
  • We will act with transparency. 

Kind regards,

Michael Skinner CIO and Managing Director, and the entire Blackwattle Team 

To download the full version, please click the link below:

Article

21 Jul 2026

Market Pulse: CIO Insights | June 2026

Market Insights

Australian equities closed the 2026 financial year with a subdued June, the S&P/ASX 200 returning 0.7% for the month and 6.1% for the twelve months to 30 June 2026.

Beneath that headline sat a sharp defensive rotation, as investors moved out of Resources and Energy following a tentative Iran-United States Memorandum of Understanding and eased geopolitical risk premia, and into Health Care, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and select Industrials that had been under pressure earlier in the year.

The 2026 financial year was defined, more than most, by dispersion.

·       Materials returned 52.2% and Energy 13.3%, driven by strength in gold, copper and lithium prices.

·       At the other extreme, Health Care fell 36.2% and Information Technology fell 33.4%. Health Care was dominated by CSL, where competitive pressure in its Behring plasma business, an immunoglobulin inventory overhang, softer China demand for albumin, further write-downs of Vifor, and an abrupt CEO departure combined to derate the stock from above 35x P/E to closer to 12x.

·       In Technology, the perceived threat of AI disruption weighed on software-based businesses such as Xero, Wisetech, Technology One and Life360, and by extension on Communications names including REA, Car Group and Seek.

Commodity markets set the tone.

Gold peaked near US$5,400 an ounce in January 2026 and eased to around US$4,000 by June end, still a 21% financial-year gain, as US rate expectations pivoted from cuts to hikes under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and higher inflation from a surging oil price. Copper rose more than 35% to US$13,375 a tonne, supported by data-centre, electric-vehicle and grid-infrastructure demand.

Lithium remained volatile: prices were supported through much of the year by the temporary closure of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine, before selling off in June on the announced restart. Oil fell 18.1% in June alone as the Iran-United States peace framework raised expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would revert to normal shipping traffic.

Domestically, the Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% following three consecutive hikes, retaining a hawkish bias while flagging data dependence. Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that the Bank stands ready to tighten further if required to return inflation to the target band.

The Fair Work Commission delivered an award wage increase of roughly 5%, and the ongoing impact of the Federal Budget tax changes has begun to show in the housing market, with dwelling prices declining 0.4% in June and ending three years of consecutive gains.

Unemployment improved to 4.4%, though the broader 2026 trend still points modestly higher.

Small caps lagged the broader market. The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries fell 2.0% in June, reversing two months of outperformance, with Small Resources down 13.4% amid the commodity retracement. Small Industrials, by contrast, gained 3.9% on the same easing in geopolitical risk, with retailers, builders and technology names leading.

Globally, the S&P 500 declined 1.1% as the AI-led momentum trade paused after several months of strong gains.

In our view, the June rotation is a useful reminder that leadership in this market has been narrow and, at times, momentum-driven.

The dispersion between the best and worst-performing sectors over the year, more than 88 percentage points from Materials to Health Care, is unusual by any historical standard and reinforces the case for disciplined, bottom-up stock selection over passive exposure.

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Article

22 Jun 2026

Market Pulse: CIO Insights | May 2026

Market Insights

Australian equity markets advanced modestly in May, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index returning 1.1% for the month.

The recovery that began in April continued, although the domestic market lagged a broadly stronger global backdrop. The US S&P 500 rose around 5%, led heavily by the technology sector and artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, as offshore investors continued to reward the data-centre and compute build-out. In my view, the defining feature of the month was the narrowness of leadership: gains were concentrated in a small number of sectors rather than broadly distributed across the market.

The dominant domestic event was the Federal Budget for 2026-2027, which the Government delivered in May.

I regard it as the most significant change to the tax system since the introduction of the GST. The headline measures affecting individuals are material: investors will now pay their full marginal tax rate on all real capital gains, subject to a minimum applied rate of 30%; from 1 July 2027 negative gearing on residential property will be limited to new builds; and from 1 July 2028 discretionary trusts will attract a 30% minimum tax paid by the trustee.

The Government framed these reforms around housing affordability and inequality, coupled with a $2bn Local Infrastructure Fund and build-to-rent measures, alongside a $14.5bn package to strengthen fuel and fertiliser reserves. In my opinion the second-round effects of these changes have not been fully assessed, and they introduce a layer of uncertainty into the consumer, banking, and property outlook that the market is still digesting.

On monetary policy, the RBA raised the cash rate by a further 25 basis points to 4.35%, continuing to lean against inflation that remains above target.

The market has been pricing a further move to 4.60% later in the year, though I expect the Board to pause and assess the combined impact of the Budget and prior tightening before acting again (which they have done in June).

The inflation picture is genuinely mixed.

April headline CPI eased to 4.2%, the lowest reading of the current cycle, while core inflation ticked up to 3.4% from 3.3%, a reminder that the last leg of disinflation is likely to be the most difficult. Q1 GDP slowed sharply to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, household consumption is softening, and unemployment rose to 4.5%, the first meaningful increase in some time.

Sector dispersion was wide. Materials was the standout, rising more than 10% as base metals rallied, with copper extending its structural advance on AI data-centre and energy-transition demand. Consumer Discretionary also gained, supported by softer data and the prospect that the rate-hiking cycle is nearing its end.

At the other extreme, Health Care was again the weakest sector, falling close to 9%, driven by a further earnings downgrade from CSL and an ongoing struggle with both the valuation and growth outlook for the sector.

Energy was weaker as oil softened on hopes of a Middle East resolution, alongside the defensive Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors.

Small Caps and Mid Caps both edged ahead of Large Caps, with the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index rising 2.03%.

We have written in past letters that we expect Quality to reassert itself as markets place greater value on strong balance sheets, predictable earnings, and durable cash flow, particularly in uncertain conditions.

May continued that trend, with the highest-quality names within our long books performing well. We do not draw firm conclusions from a single month, but the dispersion now evident across sectors and factors is precisely the environment in which I believe: disciplined, bottom-up active management can add value.

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Article

2 Jun 2026

The Budget and Its Impact on Your Retirement

Blackwattle Equity Income Portfolio Manager, Marlon Chan notes that this Federal Budget is among the most consequential in recent years from a tax reform perspective, closing off many tax-advantaged investment opportunities. Encouragingly, however, retirement-focused superannuation policies have remained largely unchanged. Our note highlights that getting your retirement strategy right can deliver some of the most significant long-term benefits for wealth creation, underscoring the importance of maximising the opportunities still available within the superannuation system.

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Article

22 May 2026

Two Housing Indicators Are Telling Very Different Stories

Blackwattle Investment Partners CIO, Michael Skinner, featured in Capital Brief discussing emerging signals in the Australian housing market.

“Two key indicators of the Australian housing market are now in disagreement.

​​Auction clearance rates, which measure the share of properties sold under the hammer, fell to 52.5% nationally in the week ending 9 May.

By contrast, consumer house price expectations index, which surveys consumers on whether they expect prices to rise or fall over the next year, sits at 153.5. That is above its long-run average of 130.

For 16 years, these two indicators have tracked closely..”

The divergence is meaningful, and investors should take note.

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Article

20 May 2026

Market Pulse: CIO Insights | April 2026

Market Insights

Australian equity markets bounced back in April, with the S&P/ASX 200 Total Return Index gaining 2.2% following the ceasefire between the US-Israel coalition and Iran.

The de-escalation of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz prompted a meaningful unwind of the risk-off positioning that drove March’s correction, although our local ASX market lagged the strong rallies offshore. The US S&P 500 returned approximately 10.4%, with major European and Asian markets recording gains of 5% to 14% in local currency terms.

In Australia, the macroeconomic picture continued to harden. The RBA recently raised the cash rate by a further 25 basis points, its third consecutive increase this year, taking the cash rate to 4.35%. Australian CPI accelerated to 4.6% year-on-year in March, with fuel prices alone contributing 1.1% to the headline figure. Trimmed mean inflation held at 3.3% annually, in line with the RBA’s February forecasts.

With unemployment near generational lows at 4.3% and wage growth running above population growth, the RBA further hiked rates in May taking the cash rate to 4.60%.

Sector performance reversed sharply from March.

·       Information Technology was the standout, gaining 13.2% as sentiment around data infrastructure and AI-related capital expenditure recovered.

·       Real Estate added 8.6%, with the market looking through implied higher rates to focus on CPI-linked rental income.

·       Materials returned 4.3% on improved base metals pricing.

·       Health Care was the weakest sector, falling 8.7% as earnings expectations were revised lower.

·       Consumer Staples also lagged, declining 4.1%.

Size dispersion was notable, with the Small Ordinaries returning 3.3%, the S&P/ASX 200 Ex-20 returning 2.7%, and the ASX 100 returning 2.2%, a reversal of March’s flight to large cap defensiveness.

Within the ASX 100, Quality was the leading long/short factor at 1.0%, with Growth contributing 0.8%, while Momentum lagged at -3.2%. April may mark the start of the Quality factor recovery we have been anticipating, as markets begin to differentiate between business models and reward genuine earnings durability.

In commodities, base metals rallied sharply. Copper gained 5% and nickel surged 14% as the ceasefire improved the demand outlook. Spodumene prices recovered 13% to US$2,660 per tonne and iron ore was broadly flat at US$108 per tonne. Brent crude fell 3.7% to US$114 per barrel, though futures pricing remains well above pre-conflict levels, embedding an ongoing inflationary tail risk. Gold eased 1%. The Australian dollar strengthened 4.4% against the US dollar to 0.72.

Forward earnings for the ASX 200 were revised modestly lower in aggregate, though the FY27 consensus growth outlook of 12.6% remains supportive.

In our view, the environment continues to reward businesses with genuine earnings resilience, particularly as the second-round effects of higher energy costs and the upcoming Fair Work wage decision present additional headwinds to margin expectations. The dispersion between the strongest and weakest sectors remains historically wide, reinforcing the value of disciplined active management.

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17 Apr 2026

Market Pulse: CIO Insights | March 2026

Market Insights

The outbreak of conflict between the US-Israel coalition and Iran dominated financial markets in March, driving the S&P/ASX 200 Total Return Index down 7.1% for the month, its worst monthly result since June 2022.The index is down 1.6% for the first quarter of 2026.

Global markets were similarly pressured, with the US S&P 500 declining approximately 5% over the same period.

The consequent disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping was the primary transmission mechanism, with oil finishing the month above US$100 per barrel, a gain of roughly 50% in March. This energy shock has materially altered the inflation and monetary policy outlook globally.

In Australia, the RBA responded by raising the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March meeting, its second consecutive increase, though the decision was a narrow 5-to-4 vote.

Notably, all board members agreed a further increase was warranted to address domestic inflation pressures, which were present even before the conflict. Several major banks now expect further hikes, with forecasts for the cycle peak ranging from 4.35% to as high as 4.85% if second-round inflation effects persist.

February headline CPI was 3.7%, and is expected to rise further through mid-year as higher energy costs flow through the economy. Q4 GDP growth of 2.6% confirmed the economy entered this period from a position of strength, but higher rates and energy costs are expected to weigh on consumption and dwelling investment going forward.

Energy was by far the best performing sector in the S&P/ASX 200 for March, rising 20.4%.

Higher oil prices also supported the Utilities sector, up 4.9%, given Origin Energy’s large weight and its exposure to oil price-linked LNG production. Defensives held up relatively well, with Insurance (+4%) and Staples (+2%) outperforming.

Less intuitively, Materials was the weakest sector in the month, partly driven by the decline in the gold price which fell almost 12%.

Possible technical factors were at play, with institutional investors potentially liquidating gold positions to meet margin or capital calls from losses in other asset classes. More fundamentally, higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar tend to be headwinds for the gold price. Outside of gold, higher energy costs, particularly in diesel, are a material cost headwind for miners, compounding concerns over a slowing global economy facing higher inflation and interest rates.

Sectors: Technology (-12.5%) and Property (-11.2%) were also material laggards, driven by the outlook for higher interest rates having a greater impact on valuations in both high growth stocks and bond-like stocks. The Size factor was notable: Small Ordinaries (-11%) and Mid Caps (-10%) both underperformed the Large Cap ASX20 index (-6%) by a significant margin, consistent with typical behaviour during market corrections.

Quality and Momentum were the weakest style factors in March, as the market rotated aggressively into low-beta, high-dividend yield names.

Quality returned -10.8% and Momentum -12.4% in the ASX 100. The spread between the best and worst performing sectors, Energy at +20.4% and Technology at -12.5%, was among the widest in recent years, underscoring the value of active stock selection in a market where index returns mask vastly different outcomes beneath the surface.

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Article

13 Apr 2026

Life360: Location Is The New Feedstock

Blackwattle Investment Analyst, Reece Frith, shares his perspective on Life360’s recent share price weakness, which appears to be driven more by shifting market sentiment than underlying fundamentals. Elevated expectations, short-term softness in U.S. MAU growth, and broader AI-related concerns across the tech sector have weighed on the stock, despite the business continuing to perform in line with or ahead of expectations. In our view, the market has become overly sensitive to minor disappointments, creating a compelling mispricing opportunity.

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