Article

3 Jan 2025

The Existential Risk Australia’s Rock Star Investors Are Facing

Our Portfolio Manager and Partner, Ray David and our Blackwattle Investment Partners’ Large Cap Quality team, provide insights into current market movements.

Ray highlights that:

“Index changes and the growth of momentum investing is having a disproportionate impact on company valuations,” says Blackwattle Investment Partners portfolio manager Ray David, who carries around a chart from Macquarie that shows index funds now account for 22 per cent of ASX 200 ownership – up from 13 per cent a decade ago.

David says market prices are increasingly set by passive investment flows, thematic ETFs and larger wholesale pools of money, leading to things like the “irrational exuberance” at CBA. Active managers – kings of the market 10 or 20 years ago – have fallen in the pecking order. Surely, that affects share prices.

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Article

17 Dec 2024

Fund Manager 2024 Wrapped – The Rise of Artificial Intelligence

As the year wraps up, we discuss seven big themes for ASX Investors in 2024, and the outlook for 2025.

The biggest theme this year was, “Artificial Intelligence (AI): The Rise of the Machines”.

Blackwattle Large Cap Portfolio Manager, Ray David, detail ASX beneficiaries poised to outperform in 2025, which extends beyond data centres and developers, but to data rich ASX companies and even the implications for electricity generation.

Pivotable moments in 2024 include Google DeepMind’s CEO, Demis Hassabis, announcing an ambitious $100 billion investment in AI tools, and OpenAI’s valuation soaring to $157 billion.

There were plenty of examples on show for ASX companies investing in AI, signaling a renaissance in business innovation driven by generative AI. This includes applications in:
Rio Tinto (RIO): Analyze historical exploration data.
Commonwealth Bank (CBA): Resolving 15,000+ transaction disputes.
Suncorp Group (SUN): Deployed AI to manage claims progress.
Sonic Healthcare (SHL): AI for faster disease diagnosis and detection.
IT Services: Review and summarize legal agreements.

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Fund Updates

12 Dec 2024

Proceed With Caution In These Stocks In 2025

Hear from our CIO Michael Skinner sharing his views on the Australian Market, noting the ASX 200’s 3.8% rise in November. He sees continued consumer spending and asset price growth but warns of risks from stretched valuations and geopolitical tensions.

Michael highlights technology stocks like Xero (ASX: XRO) as promising for 2025, citing revenue growth and disciplined cost management. However, he advises caution with expensive financials, indicating a struggle with current valuations.

Thank you Andrew Geoghegan and ausbiz for your support.

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Investment Strategy

3 Dec 2024

Lessons Learned – Business Fundamentals

At Blackwattle Investment Partners, we believe in sharing the stories behind our mistakes because these lessons drive both personal and professional growth.

Rather than shy away from mistakes, we embrace them as learning opportunities.

Here’s a story from our Portfolio Manager, Joe Koh, discussing an investment decision he made early in his career and key takeaways from his experience.

Article

2 Dec 2024

WiseTech, Xero Help ASX Tech Sector Beat Nasdaq

Joanne Tran from the Australian Financial Review discusses Technology investment in Australia with Tim Riordan and our Mid Cap Quality Team who share their own insights noted below:

Blackwattle Investment Partners portfolio manager Tim Riordan owns Xero and Life360 among other technology stocks in his mid-caps fund and has been overweight the sector.

The money manager cited robust financial metrics as one of the reasons for the strong momentum behind ASX-listed technology businesses. Other reasons include the poor performance of Australia’s mining sector which has prompted investors to look elsewhere for returns.

“They continue to present as very attractive and strong business models,” Mr Riordan said. “They’ve got multiple operational levers available to them to achieve their growth outcomes. It’s a really attractive dynamic.”

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Fund Updates

29 Nov 2024

Conversations on the Couch: Episode 7 (Empire & Blackwattle)

Conversations on the Couch: This latest interview with Michael Skinner, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer at Blackwattle Investment Partners marked 12 months of our partnership, and highlighted the unique approach Empire Financial Group takes to sourcing investment opportunities for our client portfolios.

This discussion talks about Blackwattle’s investment philosophy and the opportunities and challenges an emerging fund manager faces, and how our first 12 months of working together delivered a very pleasing result for our clients.

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Article

27 Nov 2024

Founder Problems? Pull The Other One. Founder Stocks Are Flying

Thanks to the Australian Financial Review for a well-written article exploring Founder Lead Companies.

A snippet of the article is provided below:

“We keep referring back to Sydney fund manager Blackwattle Investment Partners’ founder index – an equal-weighted portfolio of 50 founder-led companies on the ASX – to show just how good these companies have been for Australian investors.

Blackwattle’s founder [index] outperformed the ASX300 by 18 per cent a year in the decade to October 2024 – that’s huge performance. The founder-led stocks included Goodman Group, Fortescue, WiseTech, Block/Square and ResMed.

Why the outperformance? Long-term thinking, higher investment in innovation, risk tolerance and strategic decision-making and alignment, Blackwattle said. That all sounds reasonable to us.”

Thanks to Ray David, Joseph Koh and David Meehan for the insights and analysis.

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Article

25 Nov 2024

Ramsay Investors Push For Shake-Up Of ‘Failed’ Overseas Expansion

Our Portfolio Manager and Partner Ray David providing his insights to the Australian Financial Review discussing Ramsay Health Care.

Blackwattle Investment Partners portfolio manager Ray David said Ramsay’s problem was “a misallocation of capital that just hasn’t worked much like other failed Australian companies that went offshore”.

“We think the company needs a radical restructure,” Mr David said. “The share price tells you it needs to be done sooner rather than later, there is so much latent value there.

“While there have been management and board changes and the reality is execution needs to gather more pace, as industry conditions remain challenging, and the balance sheet is weak”.

Mr David’s steps to fix Ramsay include restructuring Sante via a demerger or partial sale, improving returns in its Australian hospitals business by stopping capital programs and negotiating harder with health insurers, merging its UK business with another provider to improve scale and synergies, and an on-market buyback to return cash to shareholders.”

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Article

Quality in M&A crosshairs

Mid Cap Quality Fund Portfolio Manager, Tim Riordan shares his M&A observations of high quality companies and the material demand for high quality assets across sectors.

Key highlights across the portfolio:

  • Quality assets bid – the consistent underlying bid for quality assets is impressive, if quality assets trade too cheaply they won’t last long in their current form. This somewhat underwrites valuations for true quality assets.
  • Buy v build – post the recent inflationary years, whether assets are trading cheap or rich, it is now cheaper to buy v build in many cases
  • Breadth of demand – perhaps the most interesting has been to see demand right across the spectrum of sectors and asset types – ag infrastructure, technology, financials and commodities, cyclicals & defensives, growth & value.

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Article

29 Oct 2024

In Banking, Boring Matters

Our Global Portfolio Manager, Sunny Bangia, discusses in his Livewire article two banking franchises that are of very high quality and have consistently delivered results for decades. ICICI Bank and Capital One Financial—both key holdings of the Blackwattle Global Quality Fund. Both are also known for being “boring,” which, in this case, is a good thing.

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