“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” – Peter Drucker

Australian Market

April witnessed a remarkable rebound in Australian equities, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index rising 3.6%. This performance was particularly notable given the significant intra-month volatility, where the index initially dropped 6.5% before rallying nearly 10% from its monthly low. This sharp turnaround was driven by investor optimism following reports of a temporary pause in the U.S. tariff escalation, which had initially spooked global markets.

Several factors contributed to Australia’s resilience.

• Domestic Economic Strength: Australia’s economy continues its robustness, underpinned by reasonably strong consumer spending and (now) a stable political environment. The recent re-election of the centre-left government with an expanded majority has provided policy continuity, further bolstering investor confidence.
• Attractive Valuations: Compared to global peers, we believe Australian equities are trading at relatively attractive valuations. The S&P/ASX 200’s projected Price Earnings (PE) ratio stands at 16.4 times, with an indicated dividend yield of 3.8%, making it appealing for investors seeking capital appreciation or yield.
• Currency Advantage: The Australian dollar remains near the bottom of its 20-year range, enhancing the competitiveness of Australian exports and making local assets more attractive to foreign investors.

Sector-wise, performance was mixed:

• Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT): These sectors led the months’ rally, supported by falling bond yields and a pivot back to structural growth stories.
• Gold Miners: Continued their ascent as spot prices surged past US$3,000/oz, reflecting ongoing investor demand for safe-haven assets.
• Energy and Materials: Lagged due to a 18% fall in oil prices, following increased OPEC supply quotas and concerns over global demand.

Notably, international investors have been increasing their exposure to Australian equities. Macquarie revealed that offshore investors purchased A$800 million in bank stocks in Q1 2025, with buying momentum continuing into April. This trend underscores Australia’s appeal as a relatively insulated market amid global trade tensions.

Global Markets

Global equities faced headwinds in April, with the MSCI AC World Index (AUD) declining by 1.7%. The primary catalyst was the U.S. administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announced on April 2, which imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports and 10–30% on other major trading partners. This abrupt policy shift triggered significant market volatility.

Key developments included:

• U.S. Market Volatility: The S&P 500 experienced a sharp 12% drop in early April, followed by a 9.5% rebound after the administration paused reciprocal tariffs. Despite the recovery, the index remains down year-to-date, reflecting investor caution.
• European Stability: European markets showed relative resilience, with the STOXX 600 declining modestly. Export-focused sectors like autos and luxury goods faced pressure due to the strong euro and reduced U.S. demand.
• China’s Modest Rebound: China’s equity market posted a 1.3% gain mid-month, buoyed by policy support and investor optimism. However, gains were later tempered by renewed concerns over export demand.
• Gold’s Surge: Gold prices continued their upward trajectory, driven by geopolitical risks and investor risk aversion. Gold stocks remained standout performers across regions.

The global investment landscape is increasingly characterised by:

• Trade Policy Uncertainty: The unpredictability of U.S. trade policy has introduced significant uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess risk exposures.
• Central Bank Dilemmas: Central banks are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation from tariffs and slowing growth from trade disruptions, complicating monetary policy decisions.
• Shift to Quality: In this environment, we believe that investors are, and will continue, to gravitate towards companies with resilient earnings, strong balance sheets, and pricing power.

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