Blackwattle Portfolio Manager Joseph Koh joined Sean Roger of Perpetual Asset Management on Livewire Markets’ Buy Hold Sell, borrowing the AFL Grand Final idea of balancing attack and defence to look at the ASX.
The panel rated three growth “attackers” and three “defenders”, then each manager named a pick for the next 12 months.
It was a practical look at how different businesses play different roles in a portfolio, and at how valuation, growth and resilience can lead to different answers on the same company.
Blackwattle Portfolio Manager Elan Miller joins Juliette Saly on ausbiz to discuss reporting season, where improving margins were offset by cautious outlooks as companies cut costs amid economic uncertainty. Elan unpacks the pressure facing banks and REITs from higher-for-longer rates, why he favours Stockland and Ramsay Health, and why he’s questioning the recent valuation reratings in CBA and CSL.
Hear from our Blackwattle Head of Distribution and Partner Maggie Mills as she discusses Market Insights for August.
Insight 1: Beneath the Index, a Different Market?
The ASX 200 returned one and a half per cent in August, a fifth straight month of gains. But underneath, the top 20 stocks actually fell, while small caps rose more than five per cent. The gap between the best and worst sectors was over twenty per cent.
Health Care was the standout, up nearly nineteen per cent. A year ago it was the worst sector in the market. Consumer Discretionary went the other way, down about eight per cent, with retailers talking about a battered consumer. And the big banks fell hard on stretched valuations.
The takeaway: the index return told you almost nothing about August. What you owned, and what you avoided, made the difference.
Insight 2: Rates are Volatile
July inflation came in hotter than expected at three and a half per cent, and the RBA made it clear it remains worried. Over the month, the market went from pricing half a rate hike for 2026 to more than one.
It’s a global story. Long-term bond yields in the US, Germany and Japan hit multi-year or multi-decade highs, and the new Fed Chair used Jackson Hole to push back on any talk of easing.
The takeaway: higher borrowing costs are already showing up in company results, and in the housing market. We think investors should be positioned for rates staying higher for longer, not hoping for cuts.
Insight 3: Valuations Matter
CBA delivered a perfectly sound result in August. Profit up seven per cent. The stock still fell almost eight per cent, because it was trading on the highest major bank multiple in the world. When you’re priced for perfection, sound isn’t enough.
At the other end, takeover interest arrived at big premiums where value had built up, and gold rallied almost ten per cent as investors looked for real assets.
The takeaway: after a long stretch where the market seemed to ignore valuations, suddenly they matter.
Blackwattle CEO Jarred Rubin joins Juliette Saly on ausbiz to discuss a broadly positive reporting season, while highlighting weaker trends across the banks and housing market. Jarred also shares where he sees opportunities, with a focus on small caps, technology, consumer discretionary and selected resources.
Hear from our Chief Executive Officer and Partner Jarred Rubin as he discusses Market Insights for July.
Insight 1: Australian Markets
July was a tale of two markets. The ASX 200 returned 2.3% for the month, but underneath, the ASX 20 was up 3.7% while the Small Ordinaries fell 3.2%. That’s a spread of almost seven percentage points in a single month, one of the widest we’ve seen, and it reflected a decisive rotation into liquidity and defensiveness ahead of reporting season.
Energy led the sectors, up more than 12%, as Brent crude rebounded roughly 24% to around US$90 a barrel, and local refiners Ampol and Viva Energy pointed to strong earnings on the back of elevated refining margins. Financials also rose almost 6%, with the banks rallying strongly on defensive flows.
At the other end, lithium was hit particularly hard, with Liontown Resources down 35% and Pilbara Minerals down 17%, as prices continued to reverse. Iron ore also fell, weighed down by concerns around China’s property downturn and rising supply from the Simandou project in Guinea ramping up. Technology fell close to 5%, though Wisetech managed a 10% bounce.
Insight 2: Global Markets
The global backdrop was defined by an AI-related sell-off. South Korea fell almost 24% for the month, a striking number that reflects how much semiconductor exposure there is in the KOSPI, and the S&P 500 finished roughly flat, down 0.1%.
Investors began questioning the pace and economics of AI infrastructure spending, prompted by three developments in quick succession: Meta’s decision to offer excess computing capacity externally, the release of the Kimi K3 model out of China, and widening credit spreads on US hyperscaler bonds. Together they raised questions about the returns on the hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in data centres and chips.
Because Australia has limited AI exposure and offered regional stability, our market outperformed most developed peers, with large pools of capital rotating out of emerging Asia and into the ASX.
Insight 3: Outlook
The June quarter trimmed mean inflation printed at 0.8%, comfortably below the RBA’s own forecast, and the market immediately abandoned pricing for an August rate hike. The RBA subsequently held at 4.35% in August, though Governor Bullock’s follow-up remarks were widely characterised as a hawkish pause.
Globally, the S&P 500 has since rallied sharply to fresh record highs above 7,700 as US earnings and cooler inflation reassured markets on the AI story. Focus now turns to August reporting season in Australia, where we believe the market is likely to reward margin durability over headline revenue growth.
This document is issued by Blackwattle Investment Partners Pty Limited (ABN 24 663 839 094) (BIP) corporate authorised representative of Blackwattle Licensing Pty Limited (ACN 665 711 839 AFSL 547 617) (corporate authorised representative no. 001304362) the investment manager of the Blackwattle Funds. Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (EQT) is the responsible entity of the Fund. Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EQT). This document is intended to provide general information only and is subject to change. It does not constitute an offer to subscribe for units in the Fund. The information does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should seek advice from your licensed financial adviser and read the product disclosure statement (PDS) before making an investment decision. The PDS and target market determination (TMD) for the Fund can be obtained for free by visiting our website www.blackwattlepartners.com. A TMD describes who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. The target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. It also describes the events or circumstances where the Target Market Determination for this financial product may need to be reviewed.
Neither BIP, EQT or their related body corporates guarantee repayment of capital or any particular rate of return. An investment may achieve a lower-than-expected return and investors risk losing some or all of their principal investment. BIP has obtained information from sources it considers to be reliable but does not represent that such information is accurate or complete, or that it should be relied upon. Neither BIP nor EQT make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information it provides and to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither BIP, EQT nor its directors, employees or agents accept any liability for any loss caused by using this information
This document is issued by Blackwattle Investment Partners Pty Limited (ABN 24 663 839 094) (BIP) corporate authorised representative of Blackwattle Licensing Pty Limited (ACN 665 711 839 AFSL 547 617) (corporate authorised representative no. 001304362) the investment manager of the Blackwattle Funds. Equity Trustees Limited (ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975) (EQT) is the responsible entity of the Fund. Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EQT). This document is intended to provide general information only and is subject to change. It does not constitute an offer to subscribe for units in the Fund. The information does not consider the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual. You should seek advice from your licensed financial adviser and read the product disclosure statement (PDS) before making an investment decision. The PDS and target market determination (TMD) for the Fund can be obtained for free by visiting our website www.blackwattlepartners.com. A TMD describes who this financial product is likely to be appropriate for (i.e. The target market), and any conditions around how the product can be distributed to investors. It also describes the events or circumstances where the Target Market Determination for this financial product may need to be reviewed.
Neither BIP, EQT or their related body corporates guarantee repayment of capital or any particular rate of return. An investment may achieve a lower-than-expected return and investors risk losing some or all of their principal investment. BIP has obtained information from sources it considers to be reliable but does not represent that such information is accurate or complete, or that it should be relied upon. Neither BIP nor EQT make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information it provides and to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither BIP, EQT nor its directors, employees or agents accept any liability for any loss caused by using this information
Blackwattle Portfolio Manager Joseph Koh joined Sean Roger of Perpetual Asset Management on Livewire Markets’ Buy Hold Sell, borrowing the AFL Grand Final idea of balancing attack and defence to look at the ASX.
Blackwattle Portfolio Manager Elan Miller discussed reporting season, where improving margins were offset by cautious outlooks as companies cut costs amid economic uncertainty.
Blackwattle’s August 2026 Market Insights: ASX 200 +1.5% amid sharp sector dispersion as reporting season drives volatility. Three our Funds outperformed benchmark, net of fees.
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